New Technology Can Predict Whether a Song Will Become a Hit With 84% Accuracy

Hyperlive claims its algorithm can nearly predict which songs will become hits.  So, why hasn’t it published any pro?

After just seven months on the platform, Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s single, ‘Despacito’ became the most-watched video on YouTube.  Last August, the music video reached 3 billion views.  Just two months later, it crossed the 4 billion mark.  Who would’ve predicted that ‘Despacito’ would’ve overcome ‘Gangnam Style’ and ‘See You Again’?

According to one music tech startup, its new technology may have.

Hyperlive has allegedly developed an algorithm that reportedly predicts a song’s hit potential from using its audio signature.  The technology doesn’t focus on analyzing similarity to past hits nor co-varying factors like social media activity.  Instead, it models a range neurobiobehavioral responses to music as well as underpinning psychological processes.  This, says the company, allows for prediction large-scale musical engagement with purportedly “unmatched levels precision.”

So, with such large claims, what pro does the company have?  Plenty, apparently.  Hyperlive’s algorithm correctly predicted how 10 tracks from major artists, including Ed Sheeran and Taylor Swift, would do.  Since their release, the songs have accrued a combined 180+ billion streams and over 1.2 billion single sales.  Analyzing each track’s audio signature, Hyperlive’s algorithm predicted actual performance with 84% overall accuracy.  In addition, for tracks incorrectly identified as hits, predicted total track sales and streams fell within an average 25% their actual range.

Speaking on the results, Hyperlive CEO Gef Luck said,

Luck that from a creative point view, it may help songwriters and producers make better hits.  One key thing to note, however, is that Hyperlive has yet to show definitive pro.  Its press release doesn’t contain any published graphs nor research to back up Luck’s extraordinary claims.  Until then, Hyperlive’s alleged successful new technology remains only a fairy tale.


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